Forrester has predicted a nearly 6 fold growth in SaaS between 2011 and 2020. The entire cloud computing trend is slated to undergo a slightly higher growth of about 6.11. This clearly indicates the huge role that SaaS would have in the growth of the cloud computing in general.
If you refer back to the analogy of desktops, operating systems and applications that I had provided, this starts making more sense. Once you have the hardware and bare operating system in place, these two items tend to get fairly standardized and hence commoditized. What does not stagnate is the continuous need for applications for different computational needs. Each need is further driven by niche needs. This is followed by need to optimize, need for cross integration, etc.The cloud computing model is no different. It will follow a similar pattern. First essential software will be available on demand. Next would come the need for specialized software and finally lead to mash-ups, market places, etc
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